The Bitcoin price market is in the danger zone. But with the amount of leverage currently in the system, Bitcoin longs speculating the price to go up and Bitcoin shorts speculating the price will go down.
Now is the time for a Bitcoin investor to pay attention. 6.3 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin shorts are to be liquidated if slashed when the price hits $74,000 per coin. Shorts being liquidated is good.
Shorts, people betting the price will go lower, being liquidated, meaning they were wrong, meaning that pushes the price higher. If this happens at $74,000, that’s good. It’ll explode the price. Yet, and I will say yet, a whole lot more longs to be liquidated at $59,000 per coin, which is bad. If this were to happen, around $59,000 per coin would make the price lower. But Bitcoin price us dipped today due to one big reason being the Fed meeting tomorrow. So, this week is going to be insane.
Fed Decision and what coming Next?
First, on Wednesday, June 12th, at two in the afternoon, we will have the Fed decision meeting results followed by a speech from Jerome Powell. We don’t expect the feds on interest rates to change in this meeting, but we will have an updated dot plot, which will show us how many times the Fed members think they will cut interest rates this year. So nobody expects the rates to change at tomorrow’s meeting, although the Dow also dropped more than 200 points as the Fed policy meeting kicks off.
So it starts today and results tomorrow. But the reason for this volatility in all markets and the significance of tomorrow’s Fed meeting is this dot plot they’re about to update does not happen every meeting. It’s happening tomorrow. This meeting will be very interesting because we will have an updated dot plot, which only happens every two meetings.
For those who don’t know, the Fed dot plot is a forecast where the 19 Fed members share their expectations for the number of interest rate cuts coming this year and the next. So, the dot plot gives the Feds updated projections for rate cuts throughout the rest of this year. Their tone could move markets, and because the Bitcoin price is in such a tight range with so much leverage, expect volatility.
If the Fed said they would hike interest rates, the market would panic sell, and the economy would tank. Now, big things are happening with altcoins. And keep in mind, no matter what the price of Bitcoin does day to day, accumulation is happening.
Even today, with today’s small dip, the Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs bought that dip and accumulated a respectable 26 more Bitcoin. This is the available capital in the world versus this small area right here, the available Bitcoin. We’re headed in one direction. And by the way, ticket prices for Bitcoin Nashville are about to increase in three days.
This is literally the world’s largest Bitcoin conference, just a month away. I am speaking. I will be on stage, and my brother and I are Excited to speak at the Bitcoin conference this year. Use code altcoin daily for 10 percent off your ticket. Come out, hang out. I had some Ethereum. This is where I started my kind of crypto journey, mining Ethereum back in 2016.
Sold Ethereum for Solana
Now, many people try and pit Ethereum versus Solana or Solana versus Cardano against each other. I like all three. But it’s very interesting what Solana is doing now and what comes next. The 15 biggest things that happened in Solana last month. First, PayPal’s PYUSD stablecoin is now live on Solana. But what makes this really cool is that it uses token extensions, which means without any additional coding, you have out-of-the-box confidential transfers.
You have memo fields and all sorts of plugins that can be enabled via transfer hooks. So like, if you’re wondering if Solana this year still has momentum, let me play it for just 60 more seconds. Second, Cosmos, Solana, handshake emoji. Cosmos is creating the internet of blockchains and now Solana is hooked into their IBC, their inner blockchain communications protocol, thanks to Picasso Network, which now means you can move between the networks easier than ever.
It makes it easier for anyone using Google Cloud to now launch a game on Solana with rich in-game experiences, seamless payments, and all that other good stuff. So Solana is being integrated into Cosmos. It’s also being integrated into the total Bitcoin value network. 21. co has launched 21BTC. This is a firm with billions of dollars in assets under management, now offering a native Bitcoin product on Solana with institutional-grade security and full collateralization.
Number five, $120 million has been bridged from other chains to Solana in May. And in just the first week of June, by the way, we’re already half at that mark, which is pretty incredible. Number six, Solana’s revenue crossed ETH mainnet’s revenue for a day in May. I’m old enough to remember when they said this could never be done. There’s still a long way to go.
This does not include all of the L2s and the rest of the ecosystem. Of course, it was only one day, but we are showing that low fees on a fast network with a lot of throughput can actually be an attractive proposition that can create real economic value. And news coming out of altcoins. And by the way, I’m an investor in these coins.
Low Cap Altcoin Update
LimeWire is introducing the LimeWire AI studio media browser. The media browser is now available on all AI studio tabs and allows you to, number one, access your AI creations in a single view and perform quick actions like outpaint, publish, edit, and more.
Suppose you have more questions on LimeWire. Number two announcement for EZ. As a reminder, EZ is a gamified liquidity solution. So, like a market, actually a marketplace for digital assets, tokens, and RWAs on Blast, which is an ETH L2. So, if you’re bullish on the Blast ecosystem, you’ll love this.
Right now, all users can join Lingo airdrop islands to earn token rewards. Basically, Lingo is like tokenized airline miles or just RWA-powered rewards. With EZ, within our partnership, EZ ambassadors and most active users will receive exclusive benefits, including rewards in Lingo. So cool to see the progress. And also another win for Solana. Hello is live on the Solana network.
To celebrate, we’re giving away $250 in Hello. By the way, we’re about to film season two of Killer Whales, which is one of the main products from Hello Labs. And it’s just interesting they didn’t pick Cardano or Egold or Cosmos; they chose Solana. Also, XRP news, Ripple partners with the National Bank of Georgia to digitize their economy.
I would like to see Ripple gluing together enterprise participation in DeFi, like being as like a one-stop shop for enterprises that want to participate in the DeFi ecosystem using Ripple’s tools and technologies with the XRP ledger, having a significant fraction of the features they want. This means that the country of Georgia will start to use XRP or at least Ripple software for their economy. But also have the opportunity to access whatever services are out there that they want. The great thing about the internet isn’t Amazon, it isn’t Twitter; it isn’t any one thing.
And I think what we need to have we need to have a place where people can get; I’d like to see the XRP ledger providing a significant fraction of those interesting DeFi experiences, particularly the ones that are more enterprise-focused.
Bitcoin & Crypto – What Happens Next?
I think it’s super obvious that rate cuts are probably coming. With near 100,000 Bitcoin having been taken off exchanges in the last 30 days, 54,000 from Kraken, 25,000 from Coinbase, Ethereum supply seeing similar metrics, hitting an eight-year low on exchanges, with almost 5% of the entire Bitcoin supply being scooped up by ETFs, 34 ETFs now hold over 1 million Bitcoin, BlackRock leading with over 300 Bitcoin, with blue chip AI company Nvidia having a successful stock split, Apple announcing their continued foray into the AI space, Bitcoin and the entire crypto market is ready to pop. Why? Because the Federal Reserve is about to pump crypto and all risk assets to high heaven.
All Fed Rate Cuts in 2024
Rate cuts have been expected all year. So far, that has yet to happen. Will the Fed cut rates this week? Well, Vegas odds put the chances of that happening at about 2.2%, down from 70% earlier this year. The CIO of SwanBitcoin details exactly what is expected with the Fed meeting this week. Listen to his answer. We have a pretty key Fed meeting coming up this week.
Yeah, I think it’s super obvious that you know, ultimately, at some point, rate cuts are probably coming to just look at what happened in Europe, right? Europe is heading in that direction. And I think ultimately that that’s what’s going to happen. Timing is always uncertain, like with everything in the Fed, right? If we look back to 2020, they made a very strong stance that, you know, if you remember, Paul was saying we’re not even thinking about raising rates, and we now know where that ended, right?
So I think the Fed is going to be the same thing. They’re going to be saying that there are no changes on the horizon, that things are going to be stable and predictable when we know, in fact, that that’s not the case. If there’s one thing we know about monetary policy, that it’s not stable; it’s not predictable. So, the odds of a June rate cut are very low.
These both had great odds near the beginning of the year. So, most people aren’t thinking about these rate cuts happening like they were at the start of the year.
There’s a 50% chance that they cut rates in September. It’s basically just a little bit more than a toss-up. Investors see a 50.5% chance of a quarter-point rate cut by September 17th, 18th Fed meeting with a tiny 4% chance of a 50 basis rate cut. November, the odds increase. The odds of a quarter-point rate cut are 64.4% by the November 6th and 7th meeting, which ends two days after the U.S. election. There’s a 17% chance of a 50-basis rate cut by then.
Investors see an 86.3% chance of a Fed rate cut. The fact is the U.S. markets are about to be blindsided by Fed rate cuts happening one after another as we get to the end of the year. This is exactly the sentiment and analysis that politician and financier Anthony Scaramucci echoed in our interview from a couple of days ago.
Investors see an 86.3% chance of a Fed rate cut. The fact is the U.S. markets are about to be blindsided by Fed rate cuts happening one after another as we get to the end of the year. This is exactly the sentiment and analysis that politician and financier Anthony Scaramucci echoed in our interview from a couple of days ago. It would help if you prepared for this. This is going to pump Bitcoin over 100K and altcoins a lot higher. I have been in the camp that we’re going to get two and possibly still three rate cuts.
And people look at me like I’m crazy because there were seven rate cuts, and then we went to zero rate cuts. I think the consensus now is one rate cut, but I actually think it’s going to be one. I believe that. Yes, I do think that. I think they’re going to come in October, November, and December. And I think what’s going to end up happening is the Fed is going to move 25 basis points a clip at the end of the year because they’re going to be behind the curve if they don’t do that.
The economy is weakening. You just saw the data that came out in the housing markets. The housing market is slowing down. New mortgage applications and refinancings are slowing down. And housing, whether we like it or not, is still a very large heartbeat in America.
Big businesses generally don’t create jobs. They stay at a rough equilibrium in terms of quotas. Small businesses create job growth, and 60% of the small businesses are tied to U.S. housing. Just go down your local main street. You’ll see a hardware store, sheetrock guy, plumbing guy. They’re all there. There’s a bank there that lends out mortgage money to people’s houses.
There are real estate brokers on that block. And if you look at it, about 60% of it, insurance agents that are selling you property and casualty insurance, fire insurance for your home. It’s all there. And when you have a slowdown in housing, you hurt those small businesses.
Will inflation be near 2%? And I’m going to tell you something. It already is. And I would ask your viewers and listeners to please go to truflation.com. T-R-U-flation.com. And what that is, is a decentralized aggregator of pricing data from around the United States. And you’ll see that that number is at about 2.3%. And so, why is the government reporting a different number? Well, there’s an expression that there are lies, Aaron, and there are damn lies, and there are statistics.
So lies, damn lies, and statistics. The government can make these statistics look any way they want. And they change the inputs. So we don’t think it’s accurately reflecting the drop. It’s a lagging indicator those CPI numbers are using. And we think there’s a larger drop. As a result of which, I think you’re going to get the rate cuts. You get the rate cuts. You’re going to get a tear in Bitcoin.
You’re going to get a tear in risk assets. And I don’t even think they’re that overpriced. There’s a lot of good things happening in the economy. And the earnings have generally been good. So free rate cuts, get a tear in Bitcoin, bring a tear in risk assets.
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Record low supply and record high demand; rates will probably be cut multiple times going into the end of the year. This will make all risk assets explode, combined with the U.S. election, combined with Bitcoin and Ethereum finally being desired and accepted by institutions.
Like here, it’s obvious what’s about to happen. Listen. What is driving things overall, given that, you know, we had our two big catalysts for Bitcoin, the halving and the ETF launches, you know, they’re kind of behind us now. Yeah, I think, you know, zooming out, as you mentioned, right, I think if we look at the big events of this year, the ETF is still, I think, by far the most important one, at least in terms of what it really means for Bitcoin in the long term, right? Let’s put things in perspective.
If we just look at the amount of Bitcoin that was accumulated in the ETFs, right, there’s more than 1 million Bitcoin that are actually being bought by Black Rock, Fidelity, you know, the major financial firm. So think about that. If we went a year ago and I told you we’re going to have an ETF, not only we’re going to have an ETF, but, you know, five months after ETF is launched, we’re going to have a million Bitcoin sitting at the ETFs on behalf of the clients from these institutions, people would think you’d be crazy, right? And the floodgates are open.
Just like any new technology, right, in the beginning, we’re all worried about it. But eventually, when you look at it, and you really understand the value that it has, not only in an asset allocation perspective, as I said, but on a fundamental level, what this really represents as a savings technology to the world, then people really buy into the idea.
Before, they looked at Bitcoin as a trade, right? They looked at the price like, oh, here’s where the price is. I’m going to buy it, you know, just as a trade. Now they’re looking more into, OK, so where do I put this in our portfolio? Does it fit within real estate, long term assets, hard assets in gold, right? This clearly, I think, signals a shift in perspective of where Bitcoin is in the cycle and, I believe, on the adoption scale.
